1st time in a very long time that I have posted, felt like writing up my Victor Robles information public, since there are various places using my videos and guessing on how good he could or can be.
Victor Robles
Washington Nationals
CF
Listed Height/Weight 6'0 185
Views: Numerous in Auburn, NY (Auburn Doubledays)
Videos: Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDRAyMRfs_g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmOYMeVDcEM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwuYDCT5dtg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4sQwBE0fho
Build:
Looks like an NFL cornerback
Might be closer to 5'11 175
Wiry strength, still can add upper body/lower body muscle for additional strength
will not get too big to move off centerfield
Hitting Ability:
Plus bat speed due to quick wrists, small leg kick helps him catch up to any fastball thrown to him.
Swing is be a bit long at this point which may hurt his potential hit tool
Will swing at pitches early in the count, but started to work the count more as the season progressed which resulted in the rise in strikeouts
Can be fooled by a good breaking ball, but can read spin better than many 18 year olds
Ball explodes off the bat and can barrel balls to all fields
Got hit by a lot of pitches by being close to the plate
Good bunter, will bunt for hits in the future using elite speed
Summary:
Robles has the potential to become an above average hitter at the major league level as he gets more experience to shorten his swing, work the count better, using his elite speed for infield hits, additional strength for over the fence power, and hitting to all fields.
Power:
Shows loft in his swing and hit a triple off a sign 390 in left center, also hit triple opposite field off right field wall
Bat speed and quick wrists combined with elite speed will allow Robles to post strong iso slugging numbers due to Doubles/Triples
More additional strength and using leg kick may make him become an average to above average over the fence source in the majors (18-22 HR's)
Speed:
Elite, have him 4.0 Seconds on my stop watch from right side
Uses speed for granted, gambling often for extra base hits which resulted in him getting thrown out at 2nd/3rd on more than one instance
Instincts stealing bases are very raw at this point, multiple times picked off 1st
With more instruction, Robles should be able to become a better base runner, learn how to read pickoff moves better and become an annual contender for Stolen Bases and Triples Crowns
Arm:
Plus Plus border line elite due to easy top end velocity and plus accuracy/carry to all bases
Ranks for me close to Josh Reddick in comparable viewings
Hits the cutoff man consistently
Glove:
Plus Plus (Future Gold Glover)
Can run any ball down unless hit over the fence or off the wall, runs so hard for balls his hat flies off
reads the ball great off the bat, will go out and make a sportscenter top 10 worthy catch if given the opportunity
runs crisp routs to balls for a young kid, looks like he is gliding out there
Overall Summary:
With more instruction and experience, Robles has the potential to become an all star caliber player at the major league level. The hit tool is the lone concern as you see in person and look past the batting line, there are some potential issues that need to be worked on. That being said, I've always been a low guy on hitting ability. If he becomes a plus hitter, he is a true superstar and one of the top players in the game combining his power, speed, and spectacular outfield play. 2016 will be a test against more advance competition, cold weather, and a full season in Hagerstown.
Saturday, January 9, 2016
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Tim Alderson Assessment
I went down to catch a game in early summer and I got to see Tim Alderson pitch. At this time, he was still considered a top pitching prospect in the minor. However, by the end of the season he was pitching in a different organization and was ranked much lower on prospect lists.
Size: Alderson looked a touch shorter than his listed 6'7 height. He was more in the 6'5 range in height and still looked to have a bit of projection left since he was not filled out yet. I think he could probably add about 10-15 pounds on his frame which would help his velocity.
Motion: His motion seemed a bit choppy at times when he pitched. Alderson pitched out of the stretch in high school and still maybe adjusting to pitching out of the windup. However, in his motion he used his legs well and wasn't all arm.
Stuff: Alderson was lukewarm at best in this outing. His fastball ranged from 86 to 91, but mostly settled in the 86 to 88 range. Alderson managed to reach 93 and 94 MPH on two pitches in this outing. Alderson's fastball also was quite hittable as it was often in the zone. His curveball ranged from the mid 70's to 78 and it was a slightly better than average pitch, but not the elite curveball he showed in 2008. He also hung a curveball which he allowed for a hit but would be a homer if it was in the majors. Alderson's changeup which he threw handful of times was a mediocre pitch. While he did get a stikeout on the pitch, it did not have a lot of bite and was mostly a straight change.
My assessment of Alderson is that, either he was pitching hurt all year or he's going to have a very hard time getting into a major league starting rotation. If the velocity doesn't come back this year, he will not be considered a major prospect again. If the velocity does comeback with an improved curve and change, he could be considered a future number 3 starter.
Size: Alderson looked a touch shorter than his listed 6'7 height. He was more in the 6'5 range in height and still looked to have a bit of projection left since he was not filled out yet. I think he could probably add about 10-15 pounds on his frame which would help his velocity.
Motion: His motion seemed a bit choppy at times when he pitched. Alderson pitched out of the stretch in high school and still maybe adjusting to pitching out of the windup. However, in his motion he used his legs well and wasn't all arm.
Stuff: Alderson was lukewarm at best in this outing. His fastball ranged from 86 to 91, but mostly settled in the 86 to 88 range. Alderson managed to reach 93 and 94 MPH on two pitches in this outing. Alderson's fastball also was quite hittable as it was often in the zone. His curveball ranged from the mid 70's to 78 and it was a slightly better than average pitch, but not the elite curveball he showed in 2008. He also hung a curveball which he allowed for a hit but would be a homer if it was in the majors. Alderson's changeup which he threw handful of times was a mediocre pitch. While he did get a stikeout on the pitch, it did not have a lot of bite and was mostly a straight change.
My assessment of Alderson is that, either he was pitching hurt all year or he's going to have a very hard time getting into a major league starting rotation. If the velocity doesn't come back this year, he will not be considered a major prospect again. If the velocity does comeback with an improved curve and change, he could be considered a future number 3 starter.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Top Hitting Prospects likely to regress in 2010
2010 is upon us and it's time to start writing articles of the upcoming season. This article will be based on some of the top hitting prospects in baseball who were lucky this past season and likely will have regression in 2010.
Pedro Alvarez: Pedro Alvarez hit .247 in high A-Ball with a BABIP of .289. In relative terms he was right around where a normal BABIP which is .290. Alvarez got promoted to AA and hit much better batting .333. A lot of people currently are saying that it was because Alvarez got in game shape. However, a closer look looking at his BABIP, he was very lucky in AA. Pedro had a BABIP of .407 which is much higher than normal and due for significant regression in 2010. As of now, Alvarez is likely to hit closer to .260 than .300 in 2010, but with good power production.
Domonic Brown: The Phillies top prospect whom many scouts gush about in terms of tools. However, the question about Brown is, when will the big power come. In some prospects ie. Hanley Ramirez the power develops in the majors and not in the minors. However, some don't develop power in the minors nor the majors such as Sean Burroughs one of the biggest busts in the past 15 years. Brown's power improved, but took take a step back in AA. Brown also got lucky in the BABIP department with .341 and .355 in his two stops in the minors. Brown's K-Rate and Walk rate also worsened in AA compared to high A. If Brown develops his power more then it won't be a concern if he's hitting around .280, but if the power doesn't continue to develop. Then I see Brown's stock slip some next year.
For now I see Brown and Alvarez as two who could regress next year. Alvarez is apparently being ranked as a top 5 prospect in BA but I wouldn't put him in the top 10. Brown is going to be a top 20 prospect, but a lot of his ceiling remains largely based on his power potential.
Pedro Alvarez: Pedro Alvarez hit .247 in high A-Ball with a BABIP of .289. In relative terms he was right around where a normal BABIP which is .290. Alvarez got promoted to AA and hit much better batting .333. A lot of people currently are saying that it was because Alvarez got in game shape. However, a closer look looking at his BABIP, he was very lucky in AA. Pedro had a BABIP of .407 which is much higher than normal and due for significant regression in 2010. As of now, Alvarez is likely to hit closer to .260 than .300 in 2010, but with good power production.
Domonic Brown: The Phillies top prospect whom many scouts gush about in terms of tools. However, the question about Brown is, when will the big power come. In some prospects ie. Hanley Ramirez the power develops in the majors and not in the minors. However, some don't develop power in the minors nor the majors such as Sean Burroughs one of the biggest busts in the past 15 years. Brown's power improved, but took take a step back in AA. Brown also got lucky in the BABIP department with .341 and .355 in his two stops in the minors. Brown's K-Rate and Walk rate also worsened in AA compared to high A. If Brown develops his power more then it won't be a concern if he's hitting around .280, but if the power doesn't continue to develop. Then I see Brown's stock slip some next year.
For now I see Brown and Alvarez as two who could regress next year. Alvarez is apparently being ranked as a top 5 prospect in BA but I wouldn't put him in the top 10. Brown is going to be a top 20 prospect, but a lot of his ceiling remains largely based on his power potential.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Jenrry Mejia pitching report from 8/27/09
This was the second time I saw Jenrry Mejia pitch for the Binghamton Mets in the Eastern League. This performance against the Portland Seadogs was far worse than the previous outing I saw from June, 6th. In this piece, you will read on how a kid lost confidence in his secondary pitches as the game went on.
1st inning: Mejia started out slow with his fastball hitting 91-93 before hitting 94 and 96 MPH later in the inning. Mejia threw a couple of changeups at 84 and 86 MPH and threw one nasty curveball that froze a hitter for a strikeout with 11-5 tilt at 78 MPH.
2nd inning: In this inning Mejia's fastball sat at 93-95 ranging from 91 up to 96 MPH. He also threw a couple of nice changeups in the mid 80's, getting a double play on Lars Anderson in the 2nd on a changeup. In this inning, Mejia only threw curveball at 79 MPH.
3rd inning: This was the inning where Mejia began to show signs of why a 19 year old kid was rushed too quickly. He got Yamaico Navarro to groundout, but allowed a hit to Jason Place just over the glove of Ruben Tejada. Mejia proceeded to walk Iggy Suarez and completely lose confidence in his secondary pitches. Mejia gave up a few more hits and allowed three runs in this inning. He also snapped off some poor curveballs at 75 and 77 MPH that were high with little break. He did manage to throw one solid curveball at 82 MPH, but that was his last one of the night. Mejia threw a few changeups in the inning from 83 to 87 MPH, but once there were runners on base, he completely stopped throwing the pitch. Mejia's fastball ranged from 92 up to 98 MPH, and sat in the 94 to 96 range.
4th inning: In the 4th inning, Mejia used only his fastball. Mejia lost a touch of velocity on the pitch in this inning. He sat mainly at 93 and 94 MPH and only hit above 95 MPH twice, maxing out at 96. He allowed a couple more hits and hit a batter as well. Mejia would have allowed more than one run in this inning if not for a great defensive play by Ike Davis throwing a rope to third to get Ryan Kalish out trying to advance following a base hit.
My take on Mejia from my notes was that he had a lack of trust in his curveball. His fastball was often high and out of the zone. He showed bad body language and shaky composure on the mound. My concern was that he completely stopped throwing his secondary pitches in the third inning once runners got on base. Also noted, is that Josh Thole was not the catcher for Mejia in this game compared to the first outing. I'm not sure if his finger injury was impacting him in this outing, and he struggled like this in the AFL as well. My gut thinking is that he needs at least another year in AA in 2010.
1st inning: Mejia started out slow with his fastball hitting 91-93 before hitting 94 and 96 MPH later in the inning. Mejia threw a couple of changeups at 84 and 86 MPH and threw one nasty curveball that froze a hitter for a strikeout with 11-5 tilt at 78 MPH.
2nd inning: In this inning Mejia's fastball sat at 93-95 ranging from 91 up to 96 MPH. He also threw a couple of nice changeups in the mid 80's, getting a double play on Lars Anderson in the 2nd on a changeup. In this inning, Mejia only threw curveball at 79 MPH.
3rd inning: This was the inning where Mejia began to show signs of why a 19 year old kid was rushed too quickly. He got Yamaico Navarro to groundout, but allowed a hit to Jason Place just over the glove of Ruben Tejada. Mejia proceeded to walk Iggy Suarez and completely lose confidence in his secondary pitches. Mejia gave up a few more hits and allowed three runs in this inning. He also snapped off some poor curveballs at 75 and 77 MPH that were high with little break. He did manage to throw one solid curveball at 82 MPH, but that was his last one of the night. Mejia threw a few changeups in the inning from 83 to 87 MPH, but once there were runners on base, he completely stopped throwing the pitch. Mejia's fastball ranged from 92 up to 98 MPH, and sat in the 94 to 96 range.
4th inning: In the 4th inning, Mejia used only his fastball. Mejia lost a touch of velocity on the pitch in this inning. He sat mainly at 93 and 94 MPH and only hit above 95 MPH twice, maxing out at 96. He allowed a couple more hits and hit a batter as well. Mejia would have allowed more than one run in this inning if not for a great defensive play by Ike Davis throwing a rope to third to get Ryan Kalish out trying to advance following a base hit.
My take on Mejia from my notes was that he had a lack of trust in his curveball. His fastball was often high and out of the zone. He showed bad body language and shaky composure on the mound. My concern was that he completely stopped throwing his secondary pitches in the third inning once runners got on base. Also noted, is that Josh Thole was not the catcher for Mejia in this game compared to the first outing. I'm not sure if his finger injury was impacting him in this outing, and he struggled like this in the AFL as well. My gut thinking is that he needs at least another year in AA in 2010.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Ryan Westmoreland 2010 season preview
Ryan Westmoreland is one of the top prospects in the Redsox farm system. He was highly regarded in the 2008 draft, but scared off many teams by potentially going to college at powerhouse Vanderbilt. Boston drafted Westmoreland in the 4th round and paid him two million to sign. Westmoreland made his minor league debut in June for the Lowell Spinners of the New York Penn League. I saw Westmoreland play in one of his first games of the season. He showed excellent bat speed, plus plus running speed, and a good eye at the plate. Westmoreland got hurt late in the season but he should be well by spring time. 2010 will be Westmoreland's debut in full season ball. He needs to show a few things before vaulting into a top 20 prospect, health, power, his plate discipline that is good, and how good of a fielder he is after missing some much time from the field. Westmoreland is forecast to play for low-A Greenville next year. I honestly think he will have a strong year next year.
Fearless forecast: .290 30 2b 10 3b 18 HR 80 RBI's 77 BB's 110 K's 35 SB 4 CS.
Fearless forecast: .290 30 2b 10 3b 18 HR 80 RBI's 77 BB's 110 K's 35 SB 4 CS.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Wade Davis August 23, 2009
I decided to go to Syracuse to catch the Durham Bulls vs. the Syracuse Chiefs. I wanted to see how good Jennings, Hellickson, and Davis were. In this entry I am going to write about Wade Davis start. He was fair in this outing. I am not sure but I think a hour rain delay may have hampered him in this outing. In this outing Davis sat at 92-93, threw his curveball in the high 70's to low 80's, and threw a hard changeup/2 seamer at 85-87.
1st inning: Davis struggled with his command greatly and threw 26 pitches in the inning. He sat at 92-93 and hit 94 a handful of times. He threw 3 curveballs in the inning and none of them looked like a plus pitch. He only thew a couple of high 80's changeups.
2nd inning: Davis lost a touch of velocity this inning and sat at 91-92 hitting 93 twice including getting a strikeout on a high 93 MPH fastball, but his curveball was from plus to an average pitch and he threw four of them in the inning ranging from 78-83 MPH. He threw two changeups 84 and 87 MPH.
3rd inning: This was a very quick inning for Davis as the chiefs were aggressive going after his fastball which was down to 90-91. He threw four pitches the whole inning all fastballs.
4th inning: Davis velocity was up and down this inning as he threw a fastball anywhere from 88 to 94 MPH, the 88 MPH fastball could have been his cutter or two seamer. Davis only threw one curveball in the inning and it was an above average pitch at 81 MPH. He threw one changeup according to me and that was at 83 MPH.
5th inning: Davis lost his top end velocity in this inning and ranged from 88-92 MPH mostly in the 88-89 range, while throwing two curveballs 78 and 79 MPH, and one change up at 85 MPH.
6th inning: Davis upped his velocity in this inning hitting 93 and 94 MPH at times and hit 95 MPH. He also mixed in some curveballs but threw an absolute hanger at 81 MPH that got crushed for a HR. He also threw some fastballs in the 88-89 range, and didn't throw a single changeup this inning.
From what I based on this start was that Davis doesn't have one plus pitch currently, but possibly has two above average pitches right now in his fastball and curveball. Davis didn't show much of a third pitch in this outing which made me think he has a ceiling of a 3rd starter, but could be a good guy to have in the bullpen if he incorporates more velocity on his fastball and refines his curveball a bit more.
1st inning: Davis struggled with his command greatly and threw 26 pitches in the inning. He sat at 92-93 and hit 94 a handful of times. He threw 3 curveballs in the inning and none of them looked like a plus pitch. He only thew a couple of high 80's changeups.
2nd inning: Davis lost a touch of velocity this inning and sat at 91-92 hitting 93 twice including getting a strikeout on a high 93 MPH fastball, but his curveball was from plus to an average pitch and he threw four of them in the inning ranging from 78-83 MPH. He threw two changeups 84 and 87 MPH.
3rd inning: This was a very quick inning for Davis as the chiefs were aggressive going after his fastball which was down to 90-91. He threw four pitches the whole inning all fastballs.
4th inning: Davis velocity was up and down this inning as he threw a fastball anywhere from 88 to 94 MPH, the 88 MPH fastball could have been his cutter or two seamer. Davis only threw one curveball in the inning and it was an above average pitch at 81 MPH. He threw one changeup according to me and that was at 83 MPH.
5th inning: Davis lost his top end velocity in this inning and ranged from 88-92 MPH mostly in the 88-89 range, while throwing two curveballs 78 and 79 MPH, and one change up at 85 MPH.
6th inning: Davis upped his velocity in this inning hitting 93 and 94 MPH at times and hit 95 MPH. He also mixed in some curveballs but threw an absolute hanger at 81 MPH that got crushed for a HR. He also threw some fastballs in the 88-89 range, and didn't throw a single changeup this inning.
From what I based on this start was that Davis doesn't have one plus pitch currently, but possibly has two above average pitches right now in his fastball and curveball. Davis didn't show much of a third pitch in this outing which made me think he has a ceiling of a 3rd starter, but could be a good guy to have in the bullpen if he incorporates more velocity on his fastball and refines his curveball a bit more.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Portland Seadogs vs. Binghamton Mets April 17, 2009 Report
This was my first trip of the year down to Binghamton to watch some AA ball. The prospects that I was most interested in seeing were Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, and Angenis Diaz as these guys were in the Redsox Top 20 prospect lists. At the time, there were no standouts playing for the Mets as Ruban Tejada and Josh Thole had days off. Pitching for the Mets was Dylan Owen a short right hander with average at best stuff. This day, he didn't show anything other than throwing batting practice to the SeaDogs. Owen only lasted three innings allowing 6 runs, 7 hits, 3 walks, and 3 strikeouts. He did manage to hit 93 on the gun which surprised me, but he was 89-91 most of the game. The one guy who surprised me though was Mark Wagner who struggled greatly in AA in 2008. In the first inning he ripped a shot to left center that was a no doubt homerun. Later on he added a double, but struckout on a breaking pitch from a reliever in for Owen. Wagner could be a nice backup catcher somewhere in the majors. Reddick played solid in this game as he was working the count nicely and nearly hit a homerun out to right center. He laced a triple down the right field line and showed solid speed. Reddick might steal 7-10 bags a year in the majors. However, I noticed he is a pull hitter and will have to learn to hit the ball the other way better. His defense in centerfield was okay, but not great. He got a ball hit over his head for a double, but his arm is a cannon as no one would test his arm to advance a base. Lars Anderson may have had a terrible 2009 season, but he hit a ball harder than anyone I have seen this year. Now granted the pitch he hit for the homerun was an 87 MPH Batting Practice Fastball but he hit it well over 400 feet dead center. Anderson felt like he got a monkey off his back after he hit the homerun. Anderson was almost to patient at the plate and ended striking out chasing a pitch out of the zone and showed frustration in the dugout. He slammed his bat and other items in anger. He also got in an argument with a fan before the game for not signing baseball items and was cocky about it. Anderson played a solid 1st base and scooped a throw out of the dirt, but he is not going to be anything else but a 1st baseman. He has below average speed and not much range in the field. Argenis Diaz, looks like a future utility player and will likely not hit for power or average. He is very good in the field and has very good range to get to balls that most fielders don't get to. Overall I thought that this was a good game to watch, but here were the first of Anderson's frustrations on a rough season for him.
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