I went down to catch a game in early summer and I got to see Tim Alderson pitch. At this time, he was still considered a top pitching prospect in the minor. However, by the end of the season he was pitching in a different organization and was ranked much lower on prospect lists.
Size: Alderson looked a touch shorter than his listed 6'7 height. He was more in the 6'5 range in height and still looked to have a bit of projection left since he was not filled out yet. I think he could probably add about 10-15 pounds on his frame which would help his velocity.
Motion: His motion seemed a bit choppy at times when he pitched. Alderson pitched out of the stretch in high school and still maybe adjusting to pitching out of the windup. However, in his motion he used his legs well and wasn't all arm.
Stuff: Alderson was lukewarm at best in this outing. His fastball ranged from 86 to 91, but mostly settled in the 86 to 88 range. Alderson managed to reach 93 and 94 MPH on two pitches in this outing. Alderson's fastball also was quite hittable as it was often in the zone. His curveball ranged from the mid 70's to 78 and it was a slightly better than average pitch, but not the elite curveball he showed in 2008. He also hung a curveball which he allowed for a hit but would be a homer if it was in the majors. Alderson's changeup which he threw handful of times was a mediocre pitch. While he did get a stikeout on the pitch, it did not have a lot of bite and was mostly a straight change.
My assessment of Alderson is that, either he was pitching hurt all year or he's going to have a very hard time getting into a major league starting rotation. If the velocity doesn't come back this year, he will not be considered a major prospect again. If the velocity does comeback with an improved curve and change, he could be considered a future number 3 starter.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Friday, January 1, 2010
Top Hitting Prospects likely to regress in 2010
2010 is upon us and it's time to start writing articles of the upcoming season. This article will be based on some of the top hitting prospects in baseball who were lucky this past season and likely will have regression in 2010.
Pedro Alvarez: Pedro Alvarez hit .247 in high A-Ball with a BABIP of .289. In relative terms he was right around where a normal BABIP which is .290. Alvarez got promoted to AA and hit much better batting .333. A lot of people currently are saying that it was because Alvarez got in game shape. However, a closer look looking at his BABIP, he was very lucky in AA. Pedro had a BABIP of .407 which is much higher than normal and due for significant regression in 2010. As of now, Alvarez is likely to hit closer to .260 than .300 in 2010, but with good power production.
Domonic Brown: The Phillies top prospect whom many scouts gush about in terms of tools. However, the question about Brown is, when will the big power come. In some prospects ie. Hanley Ramirez the power develops in the majors and not in the minors. However, some don't develop power in the minors nor the majors such as Sean Burroughs one of the biggest busts in the past 15 years. Brown's power improved, but took take a step back in AA. Brown also got lucky in the BABIP department with .341 and .355 in his two stops in the minors. Brown's K-Rate and Walk rate also worsened in AA compared to high A. If Brown develops his power more then it won't be a concern if he's hitting around .280, but if the power doesn't continue to develop. Then I see Brown's stock slip some next year.
For now I see Brown and Alvarez as two who could regress next year. Alvarez is apparently being ranked as a top 5 prospect in BA but I wouldn't put him in the top 10. Brown is going to be a top 20 prospect, but a lot of his ceiling remains largely based on his power potential.
Pedro Alvarez: Pedro Alvarez hit .247 in high A-Ball with a BABIP of .289. In relative terms he was right around where a normal BABIP which is .290. Alvarez got promoted to AA and hit much better batting .333. A lot of people currently are saying that it was because Alvarez got in game shape. However, a closer look looking at his BABIP, he was very lucky in AA. Pedro had a BABIP of .407 which is much higher than normal and due for significant regression in 2010. As of now, Alvarez is likely to hit closer to .260 than .300 in 2010, but with good power production.
Domonic Brown: The Phillies top prospect whom many scouts gush about in terms of tools. However, the question about Brown is, when will the big power come. In some prospects ie. Hanley Ramirez the power develops in the majors and not in the minors. However, some don't develop power in the minors nor the majors such as Sean Burroughs one of the biggest busts in the past 15 years. Brown's power improved, but took take a step back in AA. Brown also got lucky in the BABIP department with .341 and .355 in his two stops in the minors. Brown's K-Rate and Walk rate also worsened in AA compared to high A. If Brown develops his power more then it won't be a concern if he's hitting around .280, but if the power doesn't continue to develop. Then I see Brown's stock slip some next year.
For now I see Brown and Alvarez as two who could regress next year. Alvarez is apparently being ranked as a top 5 prospect in BA but I wouldn't put him in the top 10. Brown is going to be a top 20 prospect, but a lot of his ceiling remains largely based on his power potential.
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