2010 is upon us and it's time to start writing articles of the upcoming season. This article will be based on some of the top hitting prospects in baseball who were lucky this past season and likely will have regression in 2010.
Pedro Alvarez: Pedro Alvarez hit .247 in high A-Ball with a BABIP of .289. In relative terms he was right around where a normal BABIP which is .290. Alvarez got promoted to AA and hit much better batting .333. A lot of people currently are saying that it was because Alvarez got in game shape. However, a closer look looking at his BABIP, he was very lucky in AA. Pedro had a BABIP of .407 which is much higher than normal and due for significant regression in 2010. As of now, Alvarez is likely to hit closer to .260 than .300 in 2010, but with good power production.
Domonic Brown: The Phillies top prospect whom many scouts gush about in terms of tools. However, the question about Brown is, when will the big power come. In some prospects ie. Hanley Ramirez the power develops in the majors and not in the minors. However, some don't develop power in the minors nor the majors such as Sean Burroughs one of the biggest busts in the past 15 years. Brown's power improved, but took take a step back in AA. Brown also got lucky in the BABIP department with .341 and .355 in his two stops in the minors. Brown's K-Rate and Walk rate also worsened in AA compared to high A. If Brown develops his power more then it won't be a concern if he's hitting around .280, but if the power doesn't continue to develop. Then I see Brown's stock slip some next year.
For now I see Brown and Alvarez as two who could regress next year. Alvarez is apparently being ranked as a top 5 prospect in BA but I wouldn't put him in the top 10. Brown is going to be a top 20 prospect, but a lot of his ceiling remains largely based on his power potential.
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